2025年全球科技：中国无人驾驶出租车市场：商业化之路研究报告-高盛.pdf

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With 500,000 Robotaxis expected to be operating across 10+ cities in China by 2030, we believe the question is

industry as enablers to support growth. We see both a sizeable TAM opportunity ahead – US$47bn by 2035, as

well as a path to protability, modelling positive gr

oss margins in early 2026 for Tier 1 cities. Key factors to

watch:

Decreasing costs of hardware and algorithms: Our forecast for China’s Robotaxi TAM of $47bn by 2035E vs. 1

$54mn in 2025 is driven by decreasing costs of hardware and algorithms and lowering operating costs for eet

owners. The form factor is a swing factor: Robotaxis have the potential to transform productivity of time spent

in cars, turning vehicles into entertainment hubs or private workspace, gains that may signicantly increase

c

onsumer demand. Supportive Government policies/licensing, and the development of insurance for the

Allen Chang

+852 2978-2930

allen.k.chang@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Verena Jeng

+852-2978-1681

verena.jeng@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Mark Delaney, CFA

+1(212)357-0535

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